English: Comparison of GISTEMP temperature series to the projections of Hansen et al. 1988 (specifically, the upper part of figure 3). GISTEMP data downloaded from Wood for Trees on 23 Nov. 2012.

Notes

• Did not alter any baselines. "Observed" data in Paper matches well to smoothed GISTEMP.
• Sensitivity used in paper is 4.2 deg C/doubling. Current literature value is more like 3.0, leading to overestimates
• Sc. A - trace gas emission continues to increase at the rates of the 70s and 80s. Also includes trends in minor trace gases such as fluorides and ozone not included in the other scenarios.
• Sc. B - trace gas emission rate increases, but at a lower rate than in scenario A
• Sc. C - trace gas emissions decrease until 2000, when the net climate forcing ceases to increase

Ref: Hansen, J., I. Fung, A. Lacis, D. Rind, Lebedeff, R. Ruedy, G. Russell, and P. Stone, 1988: Global climate changes as forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies three-dimensional model. J. Geophys. Res., 93, 9341-9364, doi:10.1029/JD093iD08p09341