Seznam velkoplošných teplotních rekonstrukcí dvou posledních tisíciletí: Porovnání verzí
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Tento '''seznam velkoplošných teplotních rekonstrukcí dvou posledních tisíciletí''' zahrnuje ty rekonstrukční studie klimatu, které přispěly výrazně k moderní shodě o průběhu teplot za posledních 2000 let. |
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{{Pracuje se}} |
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Instrumentální měření teplot pokrývá v globálním měřítku pouze posledních 150 let. Rekonstrukce teplot ze starších období pochází z [[proxy data|klimatických proxy dat]]. Koncept výzkumu historických klimatických dat z vaver v jezerních usazeninách a z letokruhů vznikl ve 30. letech 20. století.<ref>{{Cite book |
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<!-- ##### -->'''1965''' |
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|year= 2013 |
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|date= February 2013 |
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|last= Weart |first= Spencer R. |
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|chapter= Changing Sun, Changing Climate |
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|chapter-url= http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm |
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|title= The Discovery of Global Warming |
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|url= http://www.aip.org/history/climate/solar.htm#L000 |
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|accessdate= 2013-06-04 |
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}}</ref> První, kdo přišel s myšlenou zkoumat teploty v minulosti byl Hubert Lamb, jeden z prvních paleoklimatologů, který publikoval výzkum na základě údajů z botaniky, z výzkumu historických dokumentů a meteorologických dat. Podle jeho výzkumů bylo období 1000-1200 teplé a bylo následováno studeným obdobím v letech 1500-1700. Teplé středověké období bylo označeno [[Středověká teplá perioda]], studené období [[Malá doba ledová]]<ref>{{Citace periodika |
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| příjmení = Lamb |
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| jméno = H.H. |
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| titul = The early medieval warm epoch and its sequel |
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| periodikum = Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology |
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| ročník = 1 |
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| datum = 1965-01-01 |
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| strany = 13–37 |
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| datum_přístupu = 2014-02-08 |
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| doi = 10.1016/0031-0182(65)90004-0 |
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}}</ref> Následující kvantitativní rekonstrukce používaly statistické techniky uplatněné na různá proxy data a vytvořily tak velkoplošné rekonstrukce teplot. |
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Kvantitativní rekonstrukce ukázaly konsistentní závěr, že teploty v minulých 2000 letech byly nižší, než teploty dosažené na konci 20. století. Toto poznání vyjádřila studie MBH99<ref>{{Citace periodika |
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| příjmení = Mann |
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| jméno = Michael E. |
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| titul = Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations |
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| periodikum = Geophysical Research Letters |
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| ročník = 26 |
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| číslo = 6 |
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| datum = 1999-03-15 |
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| strany = 759–762 |
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| datum_přístupu = 2014-02-09 |
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| doi = 10.1029/1999GL900070 |
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| spoluautoři=Bradley, Raymond S.; Hughes, Malcolm K. |
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}}</ref> v tzv. [[hokejkový graf|hokejkovém grafu]]. Závěry této práce později potvrdilo více, než 20 dalších studií, používajících různé kombinace proxy dat a statistických metod.<ref>{{Citace periodika |
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| příjmení = Frank |
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| jméno = David |
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| titul = A noodle, hockey stick, and spaghetti plate: a perspective on high-resolution paleoclimatology |
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| periodikum = Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change |
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| ročník = 1 |
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| číslo = 4 |
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| datum = 2010-07-01 |
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| strany = 507–516 |
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| datum_přístupu = 2014-02-09 |
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| doi = 10.1002/wcc.53 |
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| spoluautoři=Esper, Jan; Zorita, Eduardo; Wilson, Rob}}</ref> |
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==Jednotlivé rekonstrukce== |
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===První rekonstrukce=== |
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*{{Citace periodika |
*{{Citace periodika |
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| příjmení = Lamb |
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Řádek 13: | Řádek 60: | ||
| doi = 10.1016/0031-0182(65)90004-0 |
| doi = 10.1016/0031-0182(65)90004-0 |
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}} |
}} |
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<!-- ##### -->'''1979''' |
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*{{Citace periodika |
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| příjmení = Groveman |
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Řádek 27: | Řádek 73: | ||
| spoluautoři=Landsberg, Helmut E. |
| spoluautoři=Landsberg, Helmut E. |
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<!-- ##### -->'''1989''' |
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*{{Citace periodika |
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| příjmení = Jacoby |
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Řádek 41: | Řádek 86: | ||
| spoluautoři=D'Arrigo, Rosanne |
| spoluautoři=D'Arrigo, Rosanne |
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<!-- ##### -->'''1990''' |
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|rok = 1990 |
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|titul=IPCC FAR WG1|1990}} |
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*{{Citace monografie |
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|rok = 1990 |
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|autor = IPCC FAR WG1 |
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|odkaz na autora = IPCC |
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|titul = Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment (1990) |
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|edice = Report prepared for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by Working Group I |
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|editor = Houghton, J.T.; Jenkins, G.J.; and Ephraums, J.J. |
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|vydavatel = Cambridge University Press |
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|isbn = 0-521-40360-X |
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<!-- ##### -->'''1993''' |
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|datum= December 1993 |
|datum= December 1993 |
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Řádek 68: | Řádek 95: | ||
|url= http://www.geo.umass.edu/faculty/bradley/bradley1993b.pdf |
|url= http://www.geo.umass.edu/faculty/bradley/bradley1993b.pdf |
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<!-- ##### -->'''1994''' |
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Řádek 82: | Řádek 108: | ||
| spoluautoři=Diaz, Henry F. |
| spoluautoři=Diaz, Henry F. |
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<!-- ##### -->'''1995''' |
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Řádek 96: | Řádek 121: | ||
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<!-- ##### -->'''1996''' |
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|rok = 1996 |
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|autor= Nicholls et al. |
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|kapitola= Chap. 3: Observed Climate Variability and Change |
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|rok = 1996 |
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|autor = IPCC SAR WG1 |
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|odkaz na autora = IPCC |
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|titul = Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change |
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|edice = Contribution of Working Group I to the [[IPCC Second Assessment Report|Second Assessment Report]] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |
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|editor = Houghton, J.T.; Meira Filho, L.G.; Callander, B.A.; Harris, N.; Kattenberg, A., and Maskell, K. |
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<!-- ##### -->'''1997''' |
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Řádek 125: | Řádek 133: | ||
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<!-- ##### -->'''1998''' |
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===Citované ve Třetí hodnotící zprávě IPCC a ve zprávě NRC=== |
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Řádek 163: | Řádek 171: | ||
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'''1999''' |
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Řádek 204: | Řádek 199: | ||
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<!-- ##### -->'''2000''' |
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Řádek 227: | Řádek 234: | ||
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===Citované ve Čtvrté hodnotící zprávě IPCC=== |
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| příjmení = Mann |
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| titul = Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations |
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| příjmení = Briffa |
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| jméno = Keith R |
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| titul = Annual climate variability in the Holocene: interpreting the message of ancient trees |
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| periodikum = Quaternary Science Reviews |
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Řádek 240: | Řádek 286: | ||
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|datum přístupu= 2011-03-07 |
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'''2001''' |
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Řádek 262: | Řádek 299: | ||
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'''2002''' |
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*{{Citace periodika |
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Řádek 328: | Řádek 311: | ||
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'''2003''' |
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*{{Citace periodika |
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| příjmení = Mann |
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Řádek 340: | Řádek 322: | ||
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'''2004''' |
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| titul = Large-scale temperature inferences from tree rings: a review |
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| periodikum = Reviews of Geophysics |
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| datum = 2004-01-01 |
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| datum_přístupu = 2014-02-09 |
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| příjmení = Pollack |
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Řádek 376: | Řádek 333: | ||
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*{{Citace periodika |
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| příjmení = Mann |
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| titul = corrigendum: Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries |
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| periodikum = Nature |
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| ročník = 430 |
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| datum = 2004-07-01 |
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| titul = Extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere land temperature variability over the past 1000 years |
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| datum = 2004-11-01 |
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| strany = 2063–2074 |
|||
| datum_přístupu = 2014-02-09 |
|||
| doi = 10.1016/j.quascirev.2004.08.013 |
|||
| spoluautoři=Esper, Jan; D’Arrigo, Rosanne D. |
|||
}} |
|||
<!-- ##### -->'''2005''' |
|||
*{{Citace periodika |
*{{Citace periodika |
||
| příjmení = Moberg |
| příjmení = Moberg |
||
Řádek 445: | Řádek 373: | ||
|url= http://www.geo.umass.edu/faculty/bradley/rutherford2005.pdf |
|url= http://www.geo.umass.edu/faculty/bradley/rutherford2005.pdf |
||
}} |
}} |
||
<!-- ##### -->'''2006''' |
|||
*{{Citace periodika |
*{{Citace periodika |
||
| příjmení = D'Arrigo |
| příjmení = D'Arrigo |
||
Řádek 470: | Řádek 397: | ||
| doi = 10.1126/science.1120514 |
| doi = 10.1126/science.1120514 |
||
|url= http://www.sciencemag.org/content/311/5762/841.full.pdf |
|url= http://www.sciencemag.org/content/311/5762/841.full.pdf |
||
}} |
|||
*{{Citace periodika |
|||
| příjmení = Moberg |
|||
| jméno = Anders |
|||
| titul = Corrigendum: Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data |
|||
| periodikum = Nature |
|||
| ročník = 439 |
|||
| číslo = 7079 |
|||
| datum = 2006-02-23 |
|||
| strany = 1014–1014 |
|||
| datum_přístupu = 2014-02-09 |
|||
| doi = 10.1038/nature04575 |
|||
| spoluautoři=Sonechkin, Dmitry M.; Holmgren, Karin; Datsenko, Nina M.; Karlén, Wibjörn; Lauritzen, Stein-Erik |
|||
|url= http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v439/n7079/full/nature04575.html |
|||
}} |
}} |
||
*{{Citace periodika |
*{{Citace periodika |
||
Řádek 498: | Řádek 411: | ||
| spoluautoři=Crowley, Thomas J.; Hyde, William T.; Frame, David J. |
| spoluautoři=Crowley, Thomas J.; Hyde, William T.; Frame, David J. |
||
}} |
}} |
||
===Následující rekonstrukce=== |
|||
*{{Citace periodika |
*{{Citace periodika |
||
| příjmení = Smith |
| příjmení = Smith |
||
Řádek 512: | Řádek 426: | ||
|url= http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.1329/pdf |
|url= http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.1329/pdf |
||
}}, [http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/smith2006/smith2006.html Figure 1] |
}}, [http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/smith2006/smith2006.html Figure 1] |
||
*{{Citation |
|||
|date=22 June 2006 |
|||
|last1= North |first1=Gerald R. |
|||
|last2= Biondi |first2= Franco |author2-link= |
|||
|last3= Bloomfield |first3= Peter |author-link3=Peter Bloomfield |
|||
|last4= Christy |first4=John R. |author-link4=John Christy |
|||
|last5= Cuffey |first5=Kurt M. |author-link5= |
|||
|last6= Dickinson |first6=Robert E. |author-link6= |
|||
|last7= Druffel |first7=Ellen R. M. |author-link7= |
|||
|last8= Nychka |first8=Douglas |author-link8=Douglas Nychka |
|||
|coauthors= Otto-Bliesner, B.; Roberts, N.; Turekian, K.; Wallace, J. |
|||
|title= Surface temperature reconstructions for the last 2,000 years |
|||
|place= Washington, D.C. |
|||
|publisher= [[National Academies Press]] |
|||
|isbn=0-309-10225-1 |
|||
|url=http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=11676&page=R1 |
|||
}}. (North Report) |
|||
<!-- ##### -->'''2007''' |
|||
*{{Citace periodika |
*{{Citace periodika |
||
| příjmení = Juckes |
| příjmení = Juckes |
||
Řádek 544: | Řádek 440: | ||
|url= http://www.clim-past.net/3/591/2007/cp-3-591-2007.pdf |
|url= http://www.clim-past.net/3/591/2007/cp-3-591-2007.pdf |
||
}} |
}} |
||
*{{Citation |
|||
|year = 2007 |
|||
|author= Jansen et al. |
|||
|chapter= Chapter 6: Palaeoclimate |
|||
|chapter-url= http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch6.html |
|||
}}, in {{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1|2007}} |
|||
* {{Citation |
|||
|year = 2007 |
|||
|author = IPCC AR4 WG1 |
|||
|author-link = IPCC |
|||
|title = Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis |
|||
|series = Contribution of Working Group I to the [[IPCC Fourth Assessment Report|Fourth Assessment Report]] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |
|||
|editor = Solomon, S.; Qin, D.; Manning, M.; Chen, Z.; Marquis, M.; Avery, K.B.; Tignor, M.; and Miller, H.L. |
|||
|publisher = Cambridge University Press |
|||
|url = http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/contents.html |
|||
|isbn = 978-0-521-88009-1 |
|||
}} |
|||
<!-- ##### -->'''2008''' |
|||
*{{Citace periodika |
*{{Citace periodika |
||
| příjmení = Huang |
| příjmení = Huang |
||
Řádek 588: | Řádek 466: | ||
| spoluautoři=Zhang, Z.; Hughes, M. K.; Bradley, R. S.; Miller, S. K.; Rutherford, S.; Ni, F. |
| spoluautoři=Zhang, Z.; Hughes, M. K.; Bradley, R. S.; Miller, S. K.; Rutherford, S.; Ni, F. |
||
}} |
}} |
||
<!-- ##### -->'''2009''' |
|||
*{{Citace periodika |
*{{Citace periodika |
||
|příjmení |
| příjmení = Lee |
||
| jméno = Terry C. K. |
|||
|datum= 2009-09-04 |
|||
| titul = Evaluation of proxy-based millennial reconstruction methods |
|||
|titul= Global Warming Reverses Long-Term Arctic Cooling |
|||
|periodikum |
| periodikum = Climate Dynamics |
||
| ročník = 31 |
|||
|url= http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=global-warming-reverses-arctic-cooling |
|||
| číslo = 2-3 |
|||
|datum přístupu= 2011-05-19 |
|||
| datum = 2007-12-20 |
|||
}} |
|||
| strany = 263–281 |
|||
| datum_přístupu = 2014-02-09 |
|||
| doi = 10.1007/s00382-007-0351-9 |
|||
| spoluautoři=Zwiers, Francis W.; Tsao, Min |
|||
}} |
|||
*{{Citace periodika |
*{{Citace periodika |
||
| příjmení = Kaufman |
| příjmení = Kaufman |
||
Řádek 611: | Řádek 493: | ||
|url= http://www.sciencemag.org/content/325/5945/1236.full.pdf |
|url= http://www.sciencemag.org/content/325/5945/1236.full.pdf |
||
}} |
}} |
||
*{{Citation |
|||
|last1= Appell |first1= David |
|||
|date= 28 October 2009 |
|||
|title= Novel Analysis Confirms Climate "Hockey Stick" Graph |
|||
|magazine= Scientific American [webpage] |
|||
|url= http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=still-hotter-than-ever |
|||
|accessdate= 27 May 2011 |
|||
}} |
|||
*{{Citace periodika |
|||
| příjmení = Mann |
|||
| jméno = M. E. |
|||
| titul = Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly |
|||
| periodikum = Science |
|||
| ročník = 326 |
|||
| číslo = 5957 |
|||
| datum = 2009-11-26 |
|||
| strany = 1256–1260 |
|||
| datum_přístupu = 2014-02-09 |
|||
| doi = 10.1126/science.1177303 |
|||
| spoluautoři=Zhang, Z.; Rutherford, S.; Bradley, R. S.; Hughes, M. K.; Shindell, D.; Ammann, C.; Faluvegi, G.; Ni, F. |
|||
|url= http://www.sciencemag.org/content/326/5957/1256.full.pdf |
|||
}} |
|||
<!-- ##### -->'''2010''' |
|||
*{{Citace periodika |
*{{Citace periodika |
||
| příjmení = Tingley |
| příjmení = Tingley |
||
Řádek 647: | Řádek 506: | ||
| spoluautoři=Huybers, Peter |
| spoluautoři=Huybers, Peter |
||
}} |
}} |
||
*{{Citace periodika |
|||
| příjmení = Tingley |
|||
| jméno = Martin P. |
|||
| titul = A Bayesian Algorithm for Reconstructing Climate Anomalies in Space and Time. Part II: Comparison with the Regularized Expectation–Maximization Algorithm |
|||
| periodikum = Journal of Climate |
|||
| ročník = 23 |
|||
| číslo = 10 |
|||
| datum = 2010-05-01 |
|||
| strany = 2782–2800 |
|||
| datum_přístupu = 2014-02-09 |
|||
| doi = 10.1175/2009JCLI3016.1 |
|||
| spoluautoři=Huybers, Peter}} |
|||
*{{Citace periodika |
|||
| příjmení = Frank |
|||
| jméno = David |
|||
| titul = A noodle, hockey stick, and spaghetti plate: a perspective on high-resolution paleoclimatology |
|||
| periodikum = Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change |
|||
| ročník = 1 |
|||
| číslo = 4 |
|||
| datum = 2010-07-01 |
|||
| strany = 507–516 |
|||
| datum_přístupu = 2014-02-09 |
|||
| doi = 10.1002/wcc.53 |
|||
| spoluautoři=Esper, Jan; Zorita, Eduardo; Wilson, Rob}} |
|||
*{{citation |
|||
|ref= CITEREFICCER2010 |
|||
|last1= Russell |first1= Sir Muir |
|||
|last2= Boulton |first2= Geoffrey |
|||
|last3= Clark |first3= Peter |
|||
|last4= Eyton |first4= David |
|||
|last5= Norton |first4= James |
|||
|date= 7 July 2010 |
|||
|title= The Independent Climate Change E-mails Review |
|||
|url= http://www.cce-review.org/pdf/FINAL%20REPORT.pdf |
|||
}} "ICCER" |
|||
*{{Citace periodika |
*{{Citace periodika |
||
| příjmení = LJUNGQVIST |
| příjmení = LJUNGQVIST |
||
Řádek 695: | Řádek 519: | ||
|url= http://agbjarn.blog.is/users/fa/agbjarn/files/ljungquist-temp-reconstruction-2000-years.pdf |
|url= http://agbjarn.blog.is/users/fa/agbjarn/files/ljungquist-temp-reconstruction-2000-years.pdf |
||
}} |
}} |
||
<!-- ##### -->'''2011''' |
|||
*{{Citace periodika |
*{{Citace periodika |
||
| příjmení = Christiansen |
| příjmení = Christiansen |
||
Řádek 709: | Řádek 532: | ||
| spoluautoři=Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier |
| spoluautoři=Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier |
||
}} ([http://web.dmi.dk/solar-terrestrial/staff/boc/reply_to_moberg.pdf odpověď na komentáře A. Moberga]) |
}} ([http://web.dmi.dk/solar-terrestrial/staff/boc/reply_to_moberg.pdf odpověď na komentáře A. Moberga]) |
||
<!-- ##### -->'''2012''' |
|||
*{{Citace periodika |
*{{Citace periodika |
||
| příjmení = Ljungqvist |
| příjmení = Ljungqvist |
||
Řádek 722: | Řádek 544: | ||
| doi = 10.5194/cp-8-227-2012 |
| doi = 10.5194/cp-8-227-2012 |
||
| spoluautoři=Krusic, P. J.; Brattström, G.; Sundqvist, H. S. |
| spoluautoři=Krusic, P. J.; Brattström, G.; Sundqvist, H. S. |
||
}} |
|||
*{{citace monografie |
|||
|příjmení= Mann |jméno= Michael E. |
|||
|datum= 2012-03-06 |
|||
|titul= The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines |
|||
|vydavatel= Columbia University Press |
|||
|isbn= 978-0-231-15254-9 |
|||
}} |
}} |
||
*{{Citace periodika |
*{{Citace periodika |
||
Řádek 744: | Řádek 559: | ||
| url = http://www.clim-past.net/8/765/2012/cp-8-765-2012.pdf |
| url = http://www.clim-past.net/8/765/2012/cp-8-765-2012.pdf |
||
|bibcode = 2012CliPa...8..765C }} |
|bibcode = 2012CliPa...8..765C }} |
||
<!-- ##### -->'''2013''' |
|||
* {{Citation |
|||
| last = Lemonick |
|||
| first = Michael D. |
|||
| title = Climate to Warm Beyond Levels Seen for 11,300 Years |
|||
| url = http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-to-warm-beyond-levels-seen-for-at-least-11300-years-15701 |
|||
| publisher = Climate Central |
|||
| date = 7 March 2013 |
|||
| accessdate = 10 March 2013 |
|||
}} |
|||
* {{Citation |
|||
| last = Gillis |
|||
| first = Justin |
|||
| title = Global Temperatures Highest in 4,000 Years, Study Says - NYTimes.com |
|||
| url = http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/08/science/earth/global-temperatures-highest-in-4000-years-study-says.html?_r=1& |
|||
| publisher = New York Times |
|||
| date = 7 March 2013 |
|||
| accessdate = 10 March 2013 |
|||
}} |
|||
*{{Citace periodika |
*{{Citace periodika |
||
| příjmení = Marcott |
| příjmení = Marcott |
||
Řádek 789: | Řádek 585: | ||
| spoluautoři=et al. |
| spoluautoři=et al. |
||
}} |
}} |
||
==Další literatura== |
|||
<!-- ##### -->'''1990''' |
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*{{Citace monografie |
|||
|rok = 1990 |
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|autor = Folland et al. |
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|kapitola= Chap. 7: Observed Climate Variation and Change |
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|url kapitoly= http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_I/ipcc_far_wg_I_chapter_07.pdf |
|||
|titul=IPCC FAR WG1|1990}} |
|||
*{{Citace monografie |
|||
|rok = 1990 |
|||
|autor = IPCC FAR WG1 |
|||
|odkaz na autora = IPCC |
|||
|titul = Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment (1990) |
|||
|edice = Report prepared for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by Working Group I |
|||
|editor = Houghton, J.T.; Jenkins, G.J.; and Ephraums, J.J. |
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|vydavatel = Cambridge University Press |
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|isbn = 0-521-40360-X |
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}} |
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<!-- ##### -->'''1996''' |
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*{{Citace monografie |
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|rok = 1996 |
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|autor= Nicholls et al. |
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|kapitola= Chap. 3: Observed Climate Variability and Change |
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|titul=IPCC SAR WG1|rok=1996}} |
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*{{Citace monografie |
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|rok = 1996 |
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|autor = IPCC SAR WG1 |
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|odkaz na autora = IPCC |
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|titul = Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change |
|||
|edice = Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |
|||
|editor = Houghton, J.T.; Meira Filho, L.G.; Callander, B.A.; Harris, N.; Kattenberg, A., and Maskell, K. |
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|vydavatel = Cambridge University Press |
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|isbn = 0-521-56433-6 |
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}} |
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'''1998''' |
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*{{Citace periodika |
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| příjmení = Briffa |
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| jméno = K. R. |
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| periodikum = Nature |
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| ročník = 393 |
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| číslo = 6684 |
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| datum = 1998-06-04 |
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| strany = 450–455 |
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|titul="Influence of volcanic eruptions on Northern Hemisphere summer temperature over the past 600 years |
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| datum_přístupu = 2014-02-09 |
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| doi = 10.1038/30943 |
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| spoluautoři=Jones, P. D.; Schweingruber, F. H.; Osborn, T. J. |
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}} |
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'''1999''' |
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*{{Citace periodika |
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| příjmení = Briffa |
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| jméno = K. R. |
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| titul = CLIMATE WARMING:Seeing the Wood from the Trees |
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| periodikum = Science |
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| ročník = 284 |
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| číslo = 5416 |
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| datum = 1999-05-07 |
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| strany = 926–927 |
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| datum_přístupu = 2014-02-09 |
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| doi = 10.1126/science.284.5416.926 |
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}} |
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<!-- ##### -->'''2000''' |
|||
*{{Citace periodika |
|||
| příjmení = Pollack |
|||
| jméno = Henry N. |
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| periodikum = Nature |
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| ročník = 403 |
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| číslo = 6771 |
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| datum = 2000-02-17 |
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| strany = 756–758 |
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| titul= Temperature trends over the past five centuries reconstructed from borehole temperatures |
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| datum_přístupu = 2014-02-09 |
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| doi = 10.1038/35001556 |
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| spoluautoři=Huang, Shaopeng; Shen, Po-Yu |
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}} |
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*{{Citace monografie |
|||
|Příjmení= Jones |jméno= Phil |
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|datum= 2000 |
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|titul= CRU Information Sheet no. 5: The Millennial Temperature Record |
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|vydavatel= University of East Anglia |
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|url= http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/milltemp/ |
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|datum přístupu= 2011-03-07 |
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}} |
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'''2001''' |
|||
*{{Citace periodika |
|||
| příjmení = Jones |
|||
| jméno = P. D. |
|||
| titul = The Evolution of Climate Over the Last Millennium |
|||
| periodikum = Science |
|||
| ročník = 292 |
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| číslo = 5517 |
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| datum = 2001-04-27 |
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| strany = 662–667 |
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| datum_přístupu = 2014-02-09 |
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| doi = 10.1126/science.1059126 |
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}} |
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<!-- IPCC chapters and report --> |
|||
*{{Citation |
|||
|year = 2001 |
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|author= IPCC WG1 SPM |
|||
|chapter= Summary for Policymakers |
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|chapter-url= http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/005.htm |
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}}, in {{Harvnb|IPCC TAR WG1|2001}}. |
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*{{Citation |
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|year = 2001 |
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|author= Albritton et al. |
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|chapter= Technical Summary |
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|chapter-url= http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/010.htm |
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}}, in {{Harvnb|IPCC TAR WG1|2001}}. |
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*{{Citation |
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|year = 2001 |
|||
|author= Folland et al. |
|||
|chapter= Chapter 2: Observed Climate Variability and Change |
|||
|chapter-url= http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/048.htm |
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}}, in {{Harvnb|IPCC TAR WG1|2001}} |
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*{{Citation |
|||
|year = 2001 |
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|author = IPCC TAR WG1 |
|||
|author-link = IPCC |
|||
|title = Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis |
|||
|series = Contribution of Working Group I to the [[IPCC Third Assessment Report|Third Assessment Report]] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |
|||
|editor = Houghton, J.T.; Ding, Y.; Griggs, D.J.; Noguer, M.; van der Linden, P.J.; Dai, X.; Maskell, K.; and Johnson, C.A. |
|||
|publisher = Cambridge University Press |
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|url = http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc%5Ftar/?src=/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/index.htm |
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|isbn = 0-521-80767-0 |
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}} |
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*{{Citation |
|||
|year = 2001 |
|||
|author = IPCC TAR SYR |
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|author-link = IPCC |
|||
|title = Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report |
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|series = Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |
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|editor = Watson, R. T.; and the Core Writing Team |
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|publisher = Cambridge University Press |
|||
|url = http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/vol4/english/index.htm |
|||
|isbn = 0 521 80770 0 |
|||
}} |
|||
'''2004''' |
|||
*{{Citace periodika |
|||
| příjmení = Briffa |
|||
| jméno = K.R. |
|||
| titul = Large-scale temperature inferences from tree rings: a review |
|||
| periodikum = Global and Planetary Change |
|||
| ročník = 40 |
|||
| číslo = 1-2 |
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| datum = 2004-01-01 |
|||
| strany = 11–26 |
|||
| datum_přístupu = 2014-02-09 |
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| doi = 10.1016/S0921-8181(03)00095-X |
|||
| spoluautoři=Osborn, T.J.; Schweingruber, F.H. |
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}} |
|||
*{{Citace periodika |
|||
| příjmení = Jones |
|||
| jméno = P. D. |
|||
| titul = Climate over past millennia |
|||
| periodikum = Reviews of Geophysics |
|||
| ročník = 42 |
|||
| číslo = 2 |
|||
| datum = 2004-01-01 |
|||
| datum_přístupu = 2014-02-09 |
|||
| doi = 10.1029/2003RG000143 |
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|url=http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/JonesMannROG04.pdf}} |
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*{{Citace periodika |
|||
| příjmení = Mann |
|||
| jméno = Michael E. |
|||
| titul = corrigendum: Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries |
|||
| periodikum = Nature |
|||
| ročník = 430 |
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| číslo = 6995 |
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| datum = 2004-07-01 |
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| strany = 105–105 |
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| datum_přístupu = 2014-02-09 |
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| doi = 10.1038/nature02478 |
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| spoluautoři=Bradley, Raymond S.; Hughes, Malcolm K. |
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| url=http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/MBH98-corrigendum04.pdf |
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|bibcode= 2004Natur.430..105M |
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}} |
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*{{Citace periodika |
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| příjmení = Cook |
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| jméno = Edward R. |
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| titul = Extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere land temperature variability over the past 1000 years |
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| periodikum = Quaternary Science Reviews |
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| ročník = 23 |
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| číslo = 20-22 |
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| datum = 2004-11-01 |
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| strany = 2063–2074 |
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| datum_přístupu = 2014-02-09 |
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| doi = 10.1016/j.quascirev.2004.08.013 |
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| spoluautoři=Esper, Jan; D’Arrigo, Rosanne D. |
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}} |
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<!-- ##### -->'''2006''' |
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*{{Citace periodika |
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| příjmení = Moberg |
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| jméno = Anders |
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| titul = Corrigendum: Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data |
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| periodikum = Nature |
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| ročník = 439 |
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| číslo = 7079 |
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| datum = 2006-02-23 |
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| strany = 1014–1014 |
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| datum_přístupu = 2014-02-09 |
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| doi = 10.1038/nature04575 |
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| spoluautoři=Sonechkin, Dmitry M.; Holmgren, Karin; Datsenko, Nina M.; Karlén, Wibjörn; Lauritzen, Stein-Erik |
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|url= http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v439/n7079/full/nature04575.html |
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}} |
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*{{Cite book |
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|date=22 June 2006 |
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|last= North |first=Gerald R. |
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|coauthors= et. al. |
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|title= Surface temperature reconstructions for the last 2,000 years |
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|place= Washington, D.C. |
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|publisher= National Academies Press |
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|isbn=0-309-10225-1 |
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|url=http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=11676&page=R1 |
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}}. (North Report) |
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<!-- ##### -->'''2007''' |
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*{{Citation |
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|year = 2007 |
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|author= Jansen et al. |
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|chapter= Chapter 6: Palaeoclimate |
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|chapter-url= http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch6.html |
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}}, in IPCC AR4 WG1 |
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* {{Citation |
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|year = 2007 |
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|author = IPCC AR4 WG1 |
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|author-link = IPCC |
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|title = Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis |
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|series = Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |
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|editor = Solomon, S.; Qin, D.; Manning, M.; Chen, Z.; Marquis, M.; Avery, K.B.; Tignor, M.; and Miller, H.L. |
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|publisher = Cambridge University Press |
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|url = http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/contents.html |
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|isbn = 978-0-521-88009-1 |
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}} |
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<!-- ##### -->'''2009''' |
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*{{Citace periodika |
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|příjmení= Bello |jméno= David |
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|datum= 2009-09-04 |
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|titul= Global Warming Reverses Long-Term Arctic Cooling |
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|periodikum= Scientific American [webpage] |
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|url= http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=global-warming-reverses-arctic-cooling |
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|datum přístupu= 2011-05-19 |
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}} |
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*{{Citation |
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|last1= Appell |first1= David |
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|date= 28 October 2009 |
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|title= Novel Analysis Confirms Climate "Hockey Stick" Graph |
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|magazine= Scientific American [webpage] |
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|url= http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=still-hotter-than-ever |
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|accessdate= 27 May 2011 |
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}} |
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*{{Citace periodika |
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| příjmení = Mann |
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| jméno = M. E. |
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| titul = Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly |
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| periodikum = Science |
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| ročník = 326 |
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| číslo = 5957 |
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| datum = 2009-11-26 |
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| strany = 1256–1260 |
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| datum_přístupu = 2014-02-09 |
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| doi = 10.1126/science.1177303 |
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| spoluautoři=Zhang, Z.; Rutherford, S.; Bradley, R. S.; Hughes, M. K.; Shindell, D.; Ammann, C.; Faluvegi, G.; Ni, F. |
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|url= http://www.sciencemag.org/content/326/5957/1256.full.pdf |
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}} |
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<!-- ##### -->'''2010''' |
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*{{Citace periodika |
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| příjmení = Tingley |
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| jméno = Martin P. |
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| titul = A Bayesian Algorithm for Reconstructing Climate Anomalies in Space and Time. Part II: Comparison with the Regularized Expectation–Maximization Algorithm |
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| periodikum = Journal of Climate |
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| ročník = 23 |
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| číslo = 10 |
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| datum = 2010-05-01 |
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| strany = 2782–2800 |
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| datum_přístupu = 2014-02-09 |
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| doi = 10.1175/2009JCLI3016.1 |
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| spoluautoři=Huybers, Peter}} |
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*{{Citace periodika |
|||
| příjmení = Frank |
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| jméno = David |
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| titul = A noodle, hockey stick, and spaghetti plate: a perspective on high-resolution paleoclimatology |
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| periodikum = Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change |
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| ročník = 1 |
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| číslo = 4 |
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| datum = 2010-07-01 |
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| strany = 507–516 |
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| datum_přístupu = 2014-02-09 |
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| doi = 10.1002/wcc.53 |
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| spoluautoři=Esper, Jan; Zorita, Eduardo; Wilson, Rob}} |
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*{{cite book |
|||
|last= Russell |first= Sir Muir |
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|last2= Boulton |first2= Geoffrey |
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|last3= Clark |first3= Peter |
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|last4= Eyton |first4= David |
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|last5= Norton |first4= James |
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|date= 7 July 2010 |
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|title= The Independent Climate Change E-mails Review |
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|url= http://www.cce-review.org/pdf/FINAL%20REPORT.pdf |
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}} "ICCER" |
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<!-- ##### -->'''2011''' |
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*{{citace monografie |
|||
|příjmení= Mann |jméno= Michael E. |
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|datum= 2012-03-06 |
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|titul= The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines |
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|vydavatel= Columbia University Press |
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|isbn= 978-0-231-15254-9 |
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}} |
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<!-- ##### -->'''2013''' |
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* {{Cite web |
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| last = Lemonick |
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| first = Michael D. |
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| title = Climate to Warm Beyond Levels Seen for 11,300 Years |
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| url = http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-to-warm-beyond-levels-seen-for-at-least-11300-years-15701 |
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| publisher = Climate Central |
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| date = 7 March 2013 |
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| accessdate = 10 March 2013 |
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}} |
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* {{Cite web |
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| last = Gillis |
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| first = Justin |
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| title = Global Temperatures Highest in 4,000 Years, Study Says - NYTimes.com |
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| url = http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/08/science/earth/global-temperatures-highest-in-4000-years-study-says.html?_r=1& |
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| publisher = New York Times |
|||
| date = 7 March 2013 |
|||
| accessdate = 10 March 2013 |
|||
}} |
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==Reference== |
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{{překlad|en|List of large-scale temperature reconstructions of the last 2,000 years|593550997}} |
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<references /> |
Verze z 9. 2. 2014, 11:41
Tento seznam velkoplošných teplotních rekonstrukcí dvou posledních tisíciletí zahrnuje ty rekonstrukční studie klimatu, které přispěly výrazně k moderní shodě o průběhu teplot za posledních 2000 let.
Instrumentální měření teplot pokrývá v globálním měřítku pouze posledních 150 let. Rekonstrukce teplot ze starších období pochází z klimatických proxy dat. Koncept výzkumu historických klimatických dat z vaver v jezerních usazeninách a z letokruhů vznikl ve 30. letech 20. století.[1] První, kdo přišel s myšlenou zkoumat teploty v minulosti byl Hubert Lamb, jeden z prvních paleoklimatologů, který publikoval výzkum na základě údajů z botaniky, z výzkumu historických dokumentů a meteorologických dat. Podle jeho výzkumů bylo období 1000-1200 teplé a bylo následováno studeným obdobím v letech 1500-1700. Teplé středověké období bylo označeno Středověká teplá perioda, studené období Malá doba ledová[2] Následující kvantitativní rekonstrukce používaly statistické techniky uplatněné na různá proxy data a vytvořily tak velkoplošné rekonstrukce teplot.
Kvantitativní rekonstrukce ukázaly konsistentní závěr, že teploty v minulých 2000 letech byly nižší, než teploty dosažené na konci 20. století. Toto poznání vyjádřila studie MBH99[3] v tzv. hokejkovém grafu. Závěry této práce později potvrdilo více, než 20 dalších studií, používajících různé kombinace proxy dat a statistických metod.[4]
Jednotlivé rekonstrukce
První rekonstrukce
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Citované ve Čtvrté hodnotící zprávě IPCC
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- CROWLEY, Thomas J., Lowery, Thomas S. How Warm Was the Medieval Warm Period?. AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment. 2000-02-01, roč. 29, čís. 1, s. 51–54. DOI 10.1579/0044-7447-29.1.51.
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Následující rekonstrukce
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2004
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2006
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2007
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2009
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2010
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2011
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2013
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Reference
V tomto článku byl použit překlad textu z článku List of large-scale temperature reconstructions of the last 2,000 years na anglické Wikipedii.
- ↑ WEART, Spencer R. The Discovery of Global Warming. [s.l.]: [s.n.], February 2013. Dostupné online. Kapitola Changing Sun, Changing Climate.
- ↑ LAMB, H.H. The early medieval warm epoch and its sequel. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology. 1965-01-01, roč. 1, s. 13–37. DOI 10.1016/0031-0182(65)90004-0.
- ↑ MANN, Michael E., Bradley, Raymond S.; Hughes, Malcolm K. Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations. Geophysical Research Letters. 1999-03-15, roč. 26, čís. 6, s. 759–762. DOI 10.1029/1999GL900070.
- ↑ FRANK, David, Esper, Jan; Zorita, Eduardo; Wilson, Rob. A noodle, hockey stick, and spaghetti plate: a perspective on high-resolution paleoclimatology. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change. 2010-07-01, roč. 1, čís. 4, s. 507–516. DOI 10.1002/wcc.53.